vendredi 14 janvier 2011

Q&A-Workshop #2, player evolution, thinking in terms of ranges (draws, pocket pairs, turn, etc)

What is the Q&A-Workshop? It's basically a Q&A with me, Zapatos80 on Pokerstars. The difference between this and a normal strategy post is I want to take a more personalized approach to poker study. Micro players already have access to many amazing sources of information like the Concept of the Week series (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/78...ntents-397190/) but the sheer amount of strategy and theory can be daunting to take in and at first and it can be very challenging to figure out exactly what applies to your game, so this is where I come in.

You might be wondering "who is this guy?" In short, a Supernova budding Small Stakes player that enjoys writing about poker and interacting with the community. For those who are interested in learning more about me and my progress, you can follow me right here on my blog. If you want to participate in a Q&A-Workshop, send me a PM with the following :

- Your poker progress (when did you start playing, what stakes you're playing, how you are doing)
- Your poker challenges (situations you find difficult, both on and off the tables, spots you're unsure of, various types of villains that give you trouble)
- Your poker goals (what do you want out of poker, what's the next step you're working on as a poker player). If you have 1-2 hands that gave you trouble, you can include them as well.

The goal here is simply to expand/simplify CoTWs and basically make them more accessible & personalized. I also think the Q&A format will make it easier to adress the real issues and challenges that micro players face, as we tend to take many strategies for granted as we move up. Finally, i'd like to divide my answers into two sections ; the quick fix & the more detailed explanation. If you just want to plug that leak or get a fast, pragmatic explanation to your problem, use the quick fix. If you want to take the difficulty up a notch, go with the detailed explanation. However, this particular Workshop is so vast that i'll be going with a more pragmatic, direct approach to every topic.


Q&A-Workshop #2


Hey! Getting right on to subject -

poker progress

*long, but explains importance of concentrated info in a way

I started playing with thoughts about moving up in stakes over time about 5 months ago. I played by following FPcoach 
(FPCoach is a simple "training wheels" free web app created by Athene (Chiren80) and is basically a simple, basic guide that you can follow to the letter to beat NL2 and can be found at his poker community site, friendly poker :http://friendlyp.ning.com/page/fpcoach-1) for ~2months showing ~125 BI profit by grinding 24 tables @ NL2. I desperately wanted to move up in stakes, started playing NL5 and it seemed much different. At 2NL, it wasn't uncommon to see all-ins with any two cards with a lot of people playing a lot of hands preflop. At 5NL, those all-ins seem much rarer and people also play a lot tighter preflop. I started looking for ways to improve my play and got lost in the immense amount of information available - read 2 harrington on holdem books, but in the end I didnt remember almost anything of it excluding psychology, and some articles I read/videos I watched also gave me some good info but I didn't know how the best way to use it.

Btw just now thanks to this I found COTW on 2+2, I think I will study it similiar to you and school subjects - taking notes.

After that, I started adding in some NL10 tables in place of some NL2 & NL5 tables. I also applied some things I had read about like raising flop cbet vs 1 player roughly 50-60% in all three stakes although I realized it's not that good to bluff in the micro NL2 and NL5 stakes I play.

I slowly lost ~ 20 BI's @ NL10 by my estimates (not including rake) using these things, stepped down to NL2 & NL5 and then raised my bankroll to the point where it was after 2 months of play and where I am now, by playing NL2 and NL5 again (all that in ~1month), then I stopped playing poker for a long while. Now I came back and i'm just grinding NL2 again.

poker challenges

There are quite a lot of situations where I dont know what would be the GTO play (Game Theoritically Optimal). Some of those spots include, but aren't limited to :

* Playing pocket pairs. For example I always folded my TT to a cbet on flop with lower cards. After that, I tried raising or 3betting in similiar spots and at first, I was amazed to see it working so well;

* Finding table balance. Adding NL10 tables to my 24-table setup when I was just starting at that limit tables wasnt good. Table selecting during play (how to concentrate on table selection when you're already paying attention to your own tables)

* Drawing. For example I raise the flop with a multi-draw with intention to go all-in, but then I have to fold on the turn because of bad odds (not including implied odds). What's a good turn play with these draws?

* How to use implied odds. I practically never use them to estimate whether to make call or not

* A general understanding of things like position - one thing I hear often is "you can call in this spot because you will be in position on the flop". How can I tell when I will be given action first? And how does that affect preflop play? I usually fold low suited connectors to a raise because the price is too high, not because I will be out of position on the flop.

* Improving concentration - Mind Flow (http://themindflow.com/) helped a bit but I still tend to make silly mistakes in poker (and in other things too).

* How the average player evolves as the stakes go up - being more aggresive pre-flop is not the only alteration to be made etc.

poker goals

Becoming a Supernova would be absolutely amazing to say the least. In the short term, my goal is to play NL10 profitably, to study COTWs and hopefully to be able to use the information on a daily basis so I can finally move up without being scared.

GL!


Wow, this is quite a mouthful and touches on a ton of different subjects, all of which could be a Q&A-Workshop on its own. However, i'll try to go over everything by really boiling it down to the essentials so you can apply it to your game right away.

First of all, I want to mention something about your up-and-down progress ; this is completely normal. I say this because it's so easy to watch some of the super succesful players and think that if you don't succeed right away, you're a poker failure. Nothing could be further from the truth, and I would bet quite a lot that the vast majority of succesful small stakes players and above went to this process many, many times before making it. 

If you read about some of the extremely succesful men and women in any undertaking (business, acting, etc.), you'll see that more often than not, those people had to deal with a lot of failures before making it big, something we really don't hear or read about very often. Thus, keep your chin up and keep grinding. As long as you're determined to study and play well, success is guarenteed.

Player tightness in NL2 vs NL5

You mentionned one big difference between NL2 and NL5 ; player tightness. There's basically two ways to make money in poker. Having the best hand at showdown (value), or making people fold (bluff). When people are playing a lot of hands and getting to showdown very often, then playing premium hands only is a surefire way to make profits. In the loose NL2 games, this is the best strategy to adopt (tons of value betting, very little bluffs).

At the other end of the spectrum would be the hyper-tight guys who only play AK/QQ+. These guys are playing so tight that it becomes super profitable to raise ATC when you're playing against them (tons of bluffing, and only value betting when you have a supremely good hand). Those players are very rare, but if you find one, don't be afraid to steal their blinds very aggressively.

In most games however, you'll find players in the middle of these two extremes. The better the player, the more balanced your bets will have to be (need a proper balance between value and bluffs). At NL5, more players understand that playing tight preflop is good, so you'll have to adapt accordingly. As a rule of thumb, it's never wrong to tighten up yourself. Playing AJ in early position is great if people will call with A2-AT (like many people at NL2) but if the tight players are only calling with AQ-AK, you're going to be in trouble. 

You should also limp a lot less since raises are more likely. At the loose and passive NL2 games, it might be profitable to limp many hands, even in early or mid position, because many people will limp behind you, giving you good odds to hit your hand. If the players at NL5 are tighter and more aggressive, you should limp a lot less yourself or you're going to face a lot of raises you simply cannot call with weak hands. So if you change only one thing preflop, tighten up significantly in early and middle position and limp a lot less, if ever.


Thinking in terms of ranges/continuation ranges & why are you betting?


This is such a huge concept that it's going to be hard to sum up quickly, but I think it's a core piece of the answer to your questions here. A range is the hands an opponent can have in a certain spot. For example, if villain is raising 8% of his hands in early position, we can assume that if he raises UTG, his range looks something like this :

AA-88, AK-AJ, KQ

His continuation range is what he will continue with if he faces a bet. For example, if we reraise him, his continuation range might be :

AA-QQ, AK

This is a VERY important concept that is often misunderstood. For example, if you have JJ, you're ahead of his raising range. If he went all-in with his whole range against your re-raise, then you would be correct to call because you have 54% equity with JJ. However, if you reraise and he tightens up to only AA-QQ and AK, your JJ is not looking very good with only 36% equity.

This is so important that I want to emphasize this again ; when you're looking at a pretty good hand that's likely ahead of villain's range, don't bet automatically. Always ask yourself this ; if I bet here, what will villain continue with? Will he continue with a lot of weaker hands or will he fold everything I beat and only continue with hands that beat me? If you're not familiar with this stuff, it may be confusing at first so don't be shy about asking questions if you need more explanations.

By reading your questions, it seems likely that you haven't mastered thinking about ranges/continuation ranges. This is normal and takes a while to develop. However I can't give you direct answers to your more elaborate questions because it depends on so many factors. Instead of giving you a fish, i'll do my best to teach you how to fish.

Raising cbets

First of all, I highly recommend you never try to apply something in poker without knowing why you're doing it, especially if it's a play that seems uncommon or risky. Raising cbets 50-60% of the time is a good example of that ; what are you trying to accomplish? Remember that in poker, we're almost always betting for one of two reasons (for value, or as a bluff) and as a rule of thumb, we mostly want to bet for value and bluff occasionally for balance. 

If you're raising 50-60% of cbets, that means that a very high % of the time, you're raising complete air. This is bad in any situations, but it's a particularly expensive play at the micros since people don't fold very often. At the smallest stakes, I would recommend raising for value only. If you have a really solid hand and villain is likely to continue with worse, then raise. Don't raise-bluff much, if ever. Remember that you only need to raise-bluff to balance your value and that balance is defense. If villain calls a ton and rarely folds, why bluff?

Playing pocket pairs

This is basically impossible to cover in a short post but here's the gist of it : small pocket pairs (22-77) mostly rely on set value. The cheaper you can see the flop the better. If preflop raises are very rare, then consider limping with those hands. If preflop raises are common, then tighten up and just fold them in early/mid position and look to raise yourself in late position if everybody folded to you.

For beginners, I recommend you play 88-JJ exactly the same way as 22-77 preflop. The reason behind this is that although they have more value postflop, those mid-pocket pairs can be really tricky to play postflop and it's very easy to make expensive mistakes with them. Thus, if you're not sure how to maneuver complex postflop decisions, you're much better off playing them exactly like 22-77 and only continue if you hit your set. Tight is right and it's much better to sacrifice a small amount of EV than to spew massively postflop.

Finally QQ-AA should be played very aggressively for value. Against most people you can reraise and shove QQ-AA preflop. Be careful about QQ though, especially if the reraiser is very tight. Nothing wrong with folding QQ preflop if the reraiser is so tight that he's only reraising KK/AA. 

I really can't do justice to this subject in a few short paragraphs but my goal here is to help you patch up your game and if you follow the above, you should be ok preflop. For postflop play, I would recommend playing 22-99 purely for set value. If you hit your set, bet and raise and look to get all-in on all but extremely dangerous boards (4-straight or 4-flush on the board). With TT-AA, look to bet/raise and get all-in against loose opponents if you have an overpair. Against tight opponents, be careful, especially with TT-QQ, since a raise from a tight opponent usually means 2 pairs or better. Pocket pairs can be some of the trickiest hands to play well postflop, especially out of position, so until you have a very solid understanding of ranges, continuation ranges and opponent tendencies, stick to the "tight is right" strategy.

Table balance

Here's my rule regarding the number of tables ; if you're routinely in medium/big pots with marginal hands, with no idea what to do and how you got there or why, you're playing too many tables. Focus on quality and speed will come naturally. This is especially true when you're first moving up to a new stake because you need to build your confidence and get an idea of how people are playing.

Also, never underestimate the importance of table selection. At NL2, most tables are filled with loose players so table selection doesn't matter much. However, the higher you move up in stakes, the more important table selection becomes. Obviously, you want loose tables filled with fish. However, table selection works both ways ; finding fish is good, but avoiding tough regs will also improve the quality of your tables. If you don't like the players at your table, for whatever reason (is a good player constantly reraising you? is someone playing in a way you don't understand and is giving you trouble?), then leave the table and find another one.

Draws

This is another group of hand that can be tough to play and is another huge subject on its own. When you have a good draw (flush draw or open-ended straight draw), there's two important things you need to figure out ; fold equity against your opponent(s) and implied odds. If you bet/raise, will your opponent fold? This is your fold equity, and the more likely villain is to fold, the more you should consider betting/raising with your draw. If villain is very loose, as is likely at the low stakes, then consider checking or calling instead. 

Check for a free card, or call if you're getting a good price. The looser your opponent, the better your implied odds. This means even if you're not getting the proper price (roughly 4-to-1 for a flush draw on the next card), you can call a bet if your loose opponent will give you action on further streets. Unfortunately there's no recipe for this and fold equity/implied odds are very villain-dependant. At the low stakes however, you should always assume your fold equity is low and your implied odds are high as a rule of thumb. Don't vastly overestimate your implied odds, but as long as you reasonably stick to that you should be allright.

Position

Poker is war, and in war you want all the advantages you can get. Here are the three main advantages in poker :

Hand strength
Skill edge
Position

Position is simply one of three advantages you can have over your opponent. Basically, if you are skilled and have position, you can play more hands (weaker hand strength) and leverage your skill and position to make up for it. That's why you'll often hear advice such as "play more hands in position". Skill edge is a big factor however, so make sure you have a good grip on your opponent before calling raises, even in position. 

For example, if your opponent is loose and will give plenty of action, consider calling with low pocket pairs in position to setmine. Plenty of speculative hands with decent high-card strength are also fine to play in position, especially against villain who raise a lot of hands in mid/late position. Hands like ATs, KTs, QJs, JTs, etc are all good enough hands when you have position on your side. However, don't play trash or weak speculative hands like 45s unless you have a solid grip on your opponent : (will he fold easily if I raise postflop? or will he give me so much action that I can rely on flushes and straights to make up for those times I miss). Notice that without a good reason to play those hands, you should fold them. It's very hard for me to go in-depth about position in such an abstract way, so feel free to ask more precise questions if something is amiss.

Concentration

I don't think there is one right way to go about it. A healthy lifestyle, balance between work & recovery, fitness, mind exercices like Mindflow, everything can work. Most of it is common sense, and the rest is up to you. The best way to get it right is to test out new things and see how they work out, a process i'm still engaged in actively to this day. 

Personally, fitness, healthy eating and a proper sleeping schedule goes a long way. Time off, a balanced lifestyle and recovery time also help tremendously. The most important thing to remember is don't beat yourself up. Making mistakes is the price we pay for learning, everybody makes them and mistake-free play is impossible, so don't feel bad if you're making mistakes. Instead, try to learn from every one of them and think of ways to make less of them in the future. Remember also that poker is a battle of mistakes, so you don't need to make 0 mistakes to win, you only need to make less than your opponent.

Player evolution

Finally, the evolution of a poker player is basically mastery of all the above and more. At it's very core, poker is basically hand-range analysis and mathematics. You evaluate villain's range given his actions thus far, and what is range will be if you check/call/bet/raise, and pick the option that yields the most EV for you. If I had to recommend one "progression" path, it would be something like this :

- Start out very tight in all positions. Raise only AQ+ 99+ in early and middle position and add AJ/KQ in late position and only continue if you hit top pair or better postflop. At NL2, this should be plenty enough to grind out a good profit.

- Start by opening up on the button. When nobody raised, open up to 20% of your hands and see how it goes (all pocket pairs, all suited aces, any 2 broadway cards). Add a few simple, basic bluffs to your range. When you raise preflop and miss the flop, try a cbet of 2/3 of the pot even if you miss, especially in position.

- As you get more comfortable, open up on the cut-off as well. Try opening up to 15% of your hands there and see how it goes. You can try adding more hands on the button as well. Focus on putting villains on a range and try the occasional small bluff-raise when you detect weakness.

- Once you're more comfortable with your game and your bankroll, buy a hand-tracking software like Pokertracker or Hold'em manager. Having stats to analyze opponent stats is crucial to multi-tabling and is a tremendous help.

- Once you're mastered all this, you're ready to move on to more advanced concepts, tools that will be covered in a future Q&A :)

The more comfortable you get, the more you'll be able to add hands in your ranges and the more tools you'll have. The more options you have in your toolbox, the better equipped you will be to face the various situations you'll find yourself in at the tables. Anyway, this is already getting pretty long and I hope i've done a good job of getting right to the essentials without being overwhelming. As usual, feel free to post questions in the thread. Good luck at the tables!

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